Let’s Talk Futures: A Literature Review of HCI’s Future Orientation

Research Background and Issues

• What problems or challenges did the authors identify?
  Human-Computer Interaction (HCI), as a forward-looking discipline, systematically explores new modes of interaction between humans and technology, implementing discoveries to shape the future of society. However, much of the current HCI research on the future lacks sufficient reflection, appearing overly deterministic, narrow, and lacking systematic approaches, uncertainty considerations, and concrete implementation pathways. Social, ethical, and environmental impacts are often overlooked.

• Why is this issue important?
  If future-oriented HCI research fails to broaden its perspective and relies solely on technological frameworks for envisioning the future, it may exacerbate existing societal issues such as inequality, environmental degradation, and the negative impacts of technology on human behavior. This issue is particularly critical because the direction of HCI research will directly shape technological use and innovation across various aspects of society.

• Research Motivation and Related Work
  Emerging fields within HCI, such as design fiction, critical design, and speculative design, have begun influencing how researchers think about the future possibilities brought by technology. However, these studies remain largely technology-driven and uneven in their treatment of systematic future envisioning. Through a literature review, the authors aim to systematically understand the current state of future-oriented HCI research and propose improvements.

Solutions

• What methods or solutions did the authors propose?
  The authors designed a framework called SPIN (comprising Epistemic Stance, Contingency Perceptions, Systemic Integration, and Narrative) to evaluate current future-oriented HCI research. Additionally, they conducted a systematic literature review, selecting articles from 11 major HCI publication venues within the ACM Digital Library for in-depth analysis.

• What is innovative about this solution?
  The SPIN framework offers a novel perspective, focusing future research on exploring uncertainty, depth, and breadth. The framework's categories systematically reveal HCI's complex attitudes toward the future and assist researchers in addressing social, cultural, and ethical factors beyond technology.

• What are the implementation steps and key techniques used?

  1. Data Selection: Using keywords (e.g., "future," "speculative") and citation metrics to filter papers potentially related to future research.
  2. Classification and Grouping: Categorizing papers based on the SPIN framework into two groups:
  • "Fleeting futuring": Papers that briefly mention the future.
  • "Comprehensive futuring": Papers that thoroughly discuss the societal, cultural, and ethical impacts of technology.
  1. In-depth Analysis: Applying the SPIN framework to systematically analyze 205 comprehensive futuring papers quantitatively and qualitatively, summarizing their characteristics and research directions.

Research Findings

• What specific findings were obtained?

  • Temporal Trends: Comprehensive future research in HCI has gradually increased since 2012, particularly with design-related conferences and journals publishing more in-depth future-oriented articles.
  • Four Defining Characteristics:
    1. Exploring Uncertainty: Many studies actively address future uncertainties, using speculation and fiction to explore potential risks and opportunities.
    2. Short-Term Orientation: Most research remains confined to short-term timeframes, lacking discussions on long-term impacts.
    3. Focus on Human Experience: One of HCI's strengths lies in its attention to micro-level perspectives, such as individual and community experiences with technology, distinguishing it from traditional futures studies.
    4. Questioning Dominant Narratives: Some studies critique technological determinism and Western-centric narratives, exploring perspectives from the Global South and diverse racial viewpoints.

• What advantages does it have compared to existing solutions?
  Compared to traditional futures studies, this framework integrates technological design with societal productivity methods, emphasizing diversity and cross-disciplinary collaboration. Its focus on individual and community-level depth makes it more aligned with the practical realities of technology use.

• What were the experimental or evaluation results?
  The analysis identified key research trends under the SPIN framework, revealing more diverse and systematic approaches to future envisioning within HCI. However, technological centralism remains dominant, requiring further improvement.

• Limitations and Future Directions

  • Limitations: Most papers are technology-centric, lacking systematic methods to address long-term and cross-disciplinary uncertainties. Additionally, perspectives from non-technological domains remain underexplored.
  • Future Directions: The authors proposed five opportunities for improvement:
    1. Expanding into non-technological domains to explore social and cultural drivers.
    2. Applying generative uncertainty to uncover unknown possibilities.
    3. Providing experiential methods for other disciplines to engage with the future.
    4. Actively reflecting on power dynamics in design and incorporating diverse perspectives.
    5. Engaging in activism to strengthen political participation and drive collective change.

Conclusion

Through the SPIN framework and systematic literature review, this paper provides an in-depth examination of the current state of future-oriented HCI research. While the field has begun addressing uncertainty, human experience, and diverse narratives, short-term technological orientation and mainstream approaches still dominate research directions. The key to future HCI research lies in transcending technological centralism, exploring interactions across different domains, and constructing a more inclusive vision of future society through long-term and diverse approaches.