Understanding the Uncertainty in 1D Unidirectional Moving Target Selection

In contrast to the extensive studies on static target pointing, much less formal understanding of moving target acquisition can be found in the HCI literature. We designed a set of experiments to identify regularities in 1D unidirectional moving target selection, and found a Ternary-Gaussian model to be descriptive of the endpoint distribution in such tasks. The shape of the distribution as characterized by μ and σ in the Gaussian model were primarily determined by the speed and size of the moving target. The model fits the empirical data well with 0.95 and 0.94 R2 values for μ and σ, respectively. We also demonstrated two extensions of the model, including 1) predicting error rates in moving target selection; and 2) a novel interaction technique to implicitly aid moving target selection. By applying them in a game interface design, we observed good performances in both predicting error rates (e.g., 2.7% mean absolute error) and assisting moving target selection (e.g., 33% or a greater increase in pointing accuracy).